FAQ

NFL projections built from full-game simulations. Each player gets a median, a floor (p10) and a ceiling (p85/p90). We publish them for DFS, player props and season-long start/sit.

Yes. The beta is free with no card required. A paid tier may come later. Anything that changes will be announced first, and beta users will hear about it before anyone else.

DFS players (FanDuel salary, value and ceiling), prop bettors (model probability vs. the line) and season-long managers (start/sit ranks in PPR, half-PPR and standard, with floor and ceiling).

We don't know, and we won't pretend to. After we fixed a data leak in our backtest, no single-prop strategy beat the market. Live logging started this season. The Track Record page shows every graded pick with its sample size.

We only publish lines from sources that allow it: The Odds API, or lines we type in ourselves. When a line came from somewhere we can't republish, we hide it but still log and grade the forecast. Use the calculator on the home page with the line you see in your app.

Underdog and PrizePicks pay a fixed multiple for a 2-pick (3.5x and 3x). For an entry to break even, each leg needs to hit about 53.5% (Underdog) or 57.7% (PrizePicks), assuming independent legs. Same-game or correlated combos may get reduced payouts (Underdog lowers multipliers on correlated picks; PrizePicks reduces same-game payouts), which raises the break-even.

A single number hides the risk. Two players can both project 14 points, one with a 9-19 range and one with a 3-30 range. Cash games and safe season-long starts want the first; tournaments want the second.

No. Forecasts are logged before kickoff in an append-only, hash-chained file, and only the first logged forecast for each prop is graded. Re-pricing cannot replace it.

Play-by-play and box scores come from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0). The game environment uses market spreads and totals. Prop lines are shown only from sources that permit display (The Odds API or our own manual entry). All projections are produced by our own model; we don't republish other sites' projections.

We simulate every game of the week, Thursday through Monday. FanDuel salaries exist only for the Sunday main slate; DraftKings salaries come from DK's classic slates. Players ruled out are dropped.

No. PropSims is for entertainment and informational purposes only. There is no guarantee of results, and you must be 21+ (or the legal age where you live). If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Projections and the props board are published Saturday night before the first Sunday kickoff. Results are graded after nflverse posts box scores, usually Tuesday.