PropPlayers › QB › NYJ
Should I start Geno Smith in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · NYJ vs CHI · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Geno Smith QB25 in half-PPR for Week 4 (NYJ vs CHI): sit in a 12-team league. Median 13.3 points, floor 6.4 (p10), ceiling 22.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB25 (median 13.3). Standard: QB25 (median 13.3).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB25 | Sit | 13.3 | 6.4 | 22.3 |
| Half-PPR | QB25 | Sit | 13.3 | 6.4 | 22.3 |
| Standard | QB25 | Sit | 13.3 | 6.4 | 22.3 |
Game environment: NYJ market-implied team total 19.8 vs 23.2 for CHI (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 13% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Jordan Love (QB23), Malik Willis (QB24), Michael Penix Jr. (QB26), Jameis Winston (QB27).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings