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Should I start Nico Collins in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · HOU vs DAL · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Nico Collins WR13 in half-PPR for Week 4 (HOU vs DAL): start in a 12-team league. Median 10.7 points, floor 3.2 (p10), ceiling 22.0 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: WR14 (median 12.9). Standard: WR12 (median 8.5).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | WR14 | Start | 12.9 | 4.3 | 25.4 |
| Half-PPR | WR13 | Start | 10.7 | 3.2 | 22.0 |
| Standard | WR12 | Start | 8.5 | 2.0 | 18.8 |
Game environment: HOU market-implied team total 25.8 vs 22.8 for DAL (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (1 games): 27% target share, 3% carry share, 72% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Nico Collins vs similar WRs
- Nico Collins or CeeDee Lamb? Nico Collins outscores CeeDee Lamb in 47% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Nico Collins or Dontayvion Wicks? Nico Collins outscores Dontayvion Wicks in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Nico Collins or Malik Washington? Nico Collins outscores Malik Washington in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Nico Collins or Christian Watson? Nico Collins outscores Christian Watson in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Nico Collins or Drake London? Nico Collins outscores Drake London in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Nico Collins or Tetairoa McMillan? Nico Collins outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Dontayvion Wicks (WR11), Malik Washington (WR12), Christian Watson (WR14), Drake London (WR15).
Compare Nico Collins with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings