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Should I start Trevor Lawrence in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · JAC vs CIN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Trevor Lawrence QB18 in half-PPR for Week 4 (JAC vs CIN): sit in a 12-team league. Median 15.3 points, floor 8.1 (p10), ceiling 24.1 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB18 (median 15.3). Standard: QB18 (median 15.3).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB18 | Sit | 15.3 | 8.1 | 24.1 |
| Half-PPR | QB18 | Sit | 15.3 | 8.1 | 24.1 |
| Standard | QB18 | Sit | 15.3 | 8.1 | 24.1 |
Game environment: JAC market-implied team total 24.8 vs 27.2 for CIN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 10% carry share, 94% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Jacoby Brissett (QB16), Jalen Hurts (QB17), Matthew Stafford (QB19), Justin Herbert (QB20).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings