PropPlayers › QB › NO
Should I start Tyler Shough in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · NO vs ATL · kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Tyler Shough QB2 in half-PPR for Week 4 (NO vs ATL): start in a 12-team league. Median 20.1 points, floor 11.3 (p10), ceiling 30.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB2 (median 20.1). Standard: QB2 (median 20.1).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB2 | Start | 20.1 | 11.3 | 30.3 |
| Half-PPR | QB2 | Start | 20.1 | 11.3 | 30.3 |
| Standard | QB2 | Start | 20.1 | 11.3 | 30.3 |
Game environment: NO market-implied team total 24.8 vs 23.2 for ATL (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 17% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Tyler Shough vs similar QBs
- Tyler Shough or Josh Allen? Tyler Shough outscores Josh Allen in 45% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyler Shough or Patrick Mahomes? Tyler Shough outscores Patrick Mahomes in 58% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyler Shough or Lamar Jackson? Tyler Shough outscores Lamar Jackson in 58% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyler Shough or Bryce Young? Tyler Shough outscores Bryce Young in 58% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Josh Allen (QB1), Patrick Mahomes (QB3), Lamar Jackson (QB4).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings