PropPlayers › TE › BUF
Should I start Dalton Kincaid in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · BUF vs NE · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Dalton Kincaid TE8 in half-PPR for Week 4 (BUF vs NE): start in a 12-team league. Median 6.9 points, floor 1.7 (p10), ceiling 15.4 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: TE8 (median 8.7). Standard: TE5 (median 5.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | TE8 | Start | 8.7 | 2.3 | 18.2 |
| Half-PPR | TE8 | Start | 6.9 | 1.7 | 15.4 |
| Standard | TE5 | Start | 5.0 | 1.1 | 12.4 |
Game environment: BUF market-implied team total 28.5 vs 21.5 for NE (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 21% target share, 0% carry share, 68% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Dalton Kincaid vs similar TEs
- Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta? Dalton Kincaid outscores Sam LaPorta in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dalton Kincaid or Tyler Warren? Dalton Kincaid outscores Tyler Warren in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dalton Kincaid or Travis Kelce? Dalton Kincaid outscores Travis Kelce in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dalton Kincaid or Zach Ertz? Dalton Kincaid outscores Zach Ertz in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dalton Kincaid or George Kittle? Dalton Kincaid outscores George Kittle in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dalton Kincaid or Harold Fannin Jr.? Dalton Kincaid outscores Harold Fannin Jr. in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (TE, half-PPR): Tyler Warren (TE6), Travis Kelce (TE7), Zach Ertz (TE9), George Kittle (TE10).
Compare Dalton Kincaid with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings