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Jalen Tolbert Week 4 projection, props and start/sit
Week 4, 2026 · MIA vs MIN · game projections · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET ·
PropSims says sit Jalen Tolbert in Week 4 unless Malik Washington is out: as a limited-role WR his median is 0.0 half-PPR points, with a significant role in under 1% of our 10,000 simulations.
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | WR135 | Sit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| Half-PPR | WR139 | Sit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Standard | WR136 | Sit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
Jalen Tolbert props vs our simulations
| Prop | Book | Line | Over / under | Our median | Our P(over) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | FanDuel | 0.5 | +3000 / | 0.0 | 3% |
Lines from display-licensed sources (The Odds API), captured before kickoff. P(over) is our fair probability where a FanDuel price exists, otherwise the raw simulation share. No stat has a proven betting edge yet. Full props board · Track record
Game environment: MIA market-implied team total 14.2 vs 24.2 for MIN (median of 11 books via The Odds API).
Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Malachi Corley (WR137), Brandin Cooks (WR138), Gary Jennings (WR140), Kevin Austin Jr. (WR141).
Compare Jalen Tolbert with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · Week 4 WR rankings · Miami Dolphins projections