Prop SEASON-LONG · START/SIT ASSISTANT
Who should I start? Week 4
Pick 2-4 players. We compare them in the same 10,000 simulated games: who outscores whom, the median, the floor (p10) and the ceiling (p85). The recommendation changes with your goal.
Beta. Model opinion, not advice. Numbers come only from our own simulations; our projection ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes land in our 10-90 range vs. an 80% target). Covers QB/RB/WR/TE in all 16 games of Week 4, Thursday through Monday. How it works.
…or pick players (autocomplete)
Loading this week's simulations…
Ask the sims beta
Ask a start/sit question in plain English, e.g. Answers use only this week's PropSims simulation numbers; each number cites a fact below the answer.
21+ only. Not betting advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Covers every game of the week.
Week 4's closest start/sit calls
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf? DJ Moore wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Chris Olave or Ja'Marr Chase? Chris Olave wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Josh Downs or CeeDee Lamb? Josh Downs wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Malik Washington or Nico Collins? Malik Washington wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Tyson Bagent or Joe Burrow? Tyson Bagent wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Drake London or Tetairoa McMillan? Drake London wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Tyson Bagent or Deshaun Watson? Tyson Bagent wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- C.J. Stroud or Brock Purdy? C.J. Stroud wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Austin Ekeler or Saquon Barkley? Austin Ekeler wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy? Dak Prescott wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- George Kittle or Harold Fannin Jr.? George Kittle wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
- Jared Goff or Marcus Mariota? Jared Goff wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
All Week 4 close calls · Every player's start/sit page
How to read it
- Head-to-head %: the share of 10,000 simulated games in which a player scores more than the other (ties count half). Players are simulated together, game by game, so teammates and opponents move together the way they do on Sundays.
- Floor (p10): 9 in 10 sims land above it. Ceiling (p85): about 1 in 7 sims land above it. Favored this week? Take the floor. Underdog? Chase the ceiling.
- Why lines come from data only: the market-implied team total (median across books via The Odds API), this season's target/carry share and snap rate (nflverse play-by-play), the injury-report status, and any teammate we treat as out.
Coming later: ask on X. Post @PropSims start: Player A or Player B ppr and get these numbers back.