PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Austin Ekeler or Saquon Barkley: who should I start in Week 4?
· Austin Ekeler: WAS vs IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Saquon Barkley: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Saquon Barkley edges Austin Ekeler, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Austin Ekeler (53%). Standard: Saquon Barkley (54%). Need a safe floor? Austin Ekeler (p10 2.3). Need upside? Saquon Barkley (p85 14.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Austin Ekeler | 53% | RB22 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 15.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 47% | RB28 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 15.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Austin Ekeler | 50% | RB28 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 13.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 50% | RB29 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 14.4 | |
| Standard | Austin Ekeler | 46% | RB33 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 11.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 54% | RB26 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 13.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.