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Should I start James Cook III in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · BUF vs NE · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks James Cook III RB5 in half-PPR for Week 4 (BUF vs NE): start in a 12-team league. Median 15.6 points, floor 7.1 (p10), ceiling 27.2 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB6 (median 16.4). Standard: RB6 (median 14.7).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB6 | Start | 16.4 | 7.6 | 28.1 |
| Half-PPR | RB5 | Start | 15.6 | 7.1 | 27.2 |
| Standard | RB6 | Start | 14.7 | 6.6 | 26.3 |
Game environment: BUF market-implied team total 28.5 vs 21.5 for NE (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 10% target share, 68% carry share, 71% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: James Cook III vs similar RBs
- James Cook III or Bijan Robinson? James Cook III outscores Bijan Robinson in 34% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- James Cook III or Aaron Jones Sr.? James Cook III outscores Aaron Jones Sr. in 43% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- James Cook III or Kenneth Walker III? James Cook III outscores Kenneth Walker III in 45% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- James Cook III or Derrick Henry? James Cook III outscores Derrick Henry in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- James Cook III or Jaylen Warren? James Cook III outscores Jaylen Warren in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- James Cook III or Jonathan Taylor? James Cook III outscores Jonathan Taylor in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Aaron Jones Sr. (RB3), Kenneth Walker III (RB4), Derrick Henry (RB6), Jaylen Warren (RB7).
Compare James Cook III with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings