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Should I start Derrick Henry in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · BAL vs TEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Derrick Henry RB4 in half-PPR for Week 4 (BAL vs TEN): start in a 12-team league. Median 16.4 points, floor 7.5 (p10), ceiling 28.1 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB6 (median 17.2). Standard: RB3 (median 15.5).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB6 | Start | 17.2 | 7.9 | 29.0 |
| Half-PPR | RB4 | Start | 16.4 | 7.5 | 28.1 |
| Standard | RB3 | Start | 15.5 | 6.9 | 27.3 |
Game environment: BAL market-implied team total 27.0 vs 15.5 for TEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 7% target share, 71% carry share, 58% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Derrick Henry vs similar RBs
- Derrick Henry or Bijan Robinson? Derrick Henry outscores Bijan Robinson in 39% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Derrick Henry or Jahmyr Gibbs? Derrick Henry outscores Jahmyr Gibbs in 41% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor? Derrick Henry outscores Jonathan Taylor in 47% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker III? Derrick Henry outscores Kenneth Walker III in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey? Derrick Henry outscores Christian McCaffrey in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones Sr.? Derrick Henry outscores Aaron Jones Sr. in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Jahmyr Gibbs (RB2), Jonathan Taylor (RB3), Kenneth Walker III (RB5), Christian McCaffrey (RB6).
Compare Derrick Henry with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings