PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jonathan Taylor: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jonathan Taylor edges Derrick Henry, outscoring him in 52.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Jonathan Taylor (56%). Standard: Derrick Henry (51%). Need a safe floor? Jonathan Taylor (p10 7.8). Need upside? Jonathan Taylor (p85 29.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jonathan Taylor | 56% | RB3 | 19.2 | 9.0 | 31.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 44% | RB6 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 29.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Jonathan Taylor | 53% | RB3 | 17.3 | 7.8 | 29.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 47% | RB4 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 28.1 | |
| Standard | Jonathan Taylor | 49% | RB4 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 27.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 51% | RB3 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 27.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.