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Should I start Christian McCaffrey in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · SF vs DEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Christian McCaffrey RB5 in half-PPR for Week 4 (SF vs DEN): start in a 12-team league. Median 16.7 points, floor 7.0 (p10), ceiling 28.2 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB4 (median 19.1). Standard: RB7 (median 14.3).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB4 | Start | 19.1 | 8.6 | 31.1 |
| Half-PPR | RB5 | Start | 16.7 | 7.0 | 28.2 |
| Standard | RB7 | Start | 14.3 | 5.2 | 25.3 |
Game environment: SF market-implied team total 25.5 vs 23.0 for DEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 21% target share, 47% carry share, 63% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Christian McCaffrey vs similar RBs
- Christian McCaffrey or Jahmyr Gibbs? Christian McCaffrey outscores Jahmyr Gibbs in 38% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Kenneth Walker III? Christian McCaffrey outscores Kenneth Walker III in 46% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Aaron Jones Sr.? Christian McCaffrey outscores Aaron Jones Sr. in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor? Christian McCaffrey outscores Jonathan Taylor in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry? Christian McCaffrey outscores Derrick Henry in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Jaylen Warren? Christian McCaffrey outscores Jaylen Warren in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Kenneth Walker III (RB3), Aaron Jones Sr. (RB4), Jonathan Taylor (RB6), Derrick Henry (RB7).
Compare Christian McCaffrey with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings