PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jahmyr Gibbs: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Christian McCaffrey: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Start Jahmyr Gibbs over Christian McCaffrey in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 60% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (59%) and standard (61%). Need a safe floor? Jahmyr Gibbs (p10 8.9). Need upside? Jahmyr Gibbs (p85 33.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 59% | RB2 | 21.7 | 10.3 | 35.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 41% | RB4 | 18.6 | 8.4 | 30.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 60% | RB2 | 19.6 | 8.9 | 33.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 40% | RB4 | 16.4 | 6.9 | 27.8 | |
| Standard | Jahmyr Gibbs | 61% | RB2 | 17.6 | 7.4 | 31.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 39% | RB8 | 14.0 | 5.2 | 25.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.