PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?
· Christian McCaffrey: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Christian McCaffrey edges Derrick Henry, outscoring him in 52.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Christian McCaffrey (58%). Standard: Derrick Henry (53%). Need a safe floor? Christian McCaffrey (p10 7.0). Need upside? Christian McCaffrey (p85 28.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Christian McCaffrey | 58% | RB4 | 19.0 | 8.6 | 31.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 42% | RB8 | 16.0 | 7.3 | 28.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Christian McCaffrey | 53% | RB5 | 16.6 | 7.0 | 28.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 48% | RB7 | 15.4 | 7.0 | 27.5 | |
| Standard | Christian McCaffrey | 47% | RB7 | 14.1 | 5.3 | 25.5 |
| Derrick Henry | 53% | RB5 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 27.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.