PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones Sr.: who should I start in Week 4?
· Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Derrick Henry edges Aaron Jones Sr., outscoring him in 52.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Derrick Henry (p10 7.5). Need upside? Derrick Henry (p85 28.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Derrick Henry | 51% | RB6 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 29.0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 49% | RB7 | 17.1 | 7.1 | 29.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Derrick Henry | 52% | RB4 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 28.1 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 48% | RB7 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 28.1 | |
| Standard | Derrick Henry | 53% | RB3 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 27.3 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 47% | RB6 | 14.6 | 5.7 | 26.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.