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Should I start Josh Downs in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · IND vs WAS · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET ·
PropSims ranks Josh Downs WR9 in half-PPR for Week 4 (IND vs WAS): start in a 12-team league. Median 11.6 points, floor 3.6 (p10), ceiling 23.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: WR9 (median 14.4). Standard: WR8 (median 9.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | WR9 | Start | 14.4 | 4.9 | 27.4 |
| Half-PPR | WR9 | Start | 11.6 | 3.6 | 23.6 |
| Standard | WR8 | Start | 9.0 | 2.1 | 20.1 |
Game environment: IND market-implied team total 25.5 vs 21.0 for WAS (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 25% target share, 0% carry share, 80% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Josh Downs vs similar WRs
- Josh Downs or Jordan Addison? Josh Downs outscores Jordan Addison in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Downs or Zay Flowers? Josh Downs outscores Zay Flowers in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Downs or Puka Nacua? Josh Downs outscores Puka Nacua in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Downs or CeeDee Lamb? Josh Downs outscores CeeDee Lamb in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Downs or Dontayvion Wicks? Josh Downs outscores Dontayvion Wicks in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Downs or Malik Washington? Josh Downs outscores Malik Washington in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Zay Flowers (WR7), Puka Nacua (WR8), CeeDee Lamb (WR10), Dontayvion Wicks (WR11).
Compare Josh Downs with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings