PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Josh Downs or Dontayvion Wicks: who should I start in Week 4?
· Josh Downs: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Dontayvion Wicks: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Josh Downs edges Dontayvion Wicks, outscoring him in 51.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Josh Downs (p10 3.6). Need upside? Josh Downs (p85 23.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Josh Downs | 52% | WR9 | 14.4 | 4.9 | 27.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 48% | WR11 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 26.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Josh Downs | 51% | WR9 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 23.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 49% | WR11 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 22.7 | |
| Standard | Josh Downs | 51% | WR8 | 9.0 | 2.1 | 20.1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 49% | WR9 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 19.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.