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Should I start Kyler Murray in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · MIN vs MIA · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Kyler Murray QB32 in half-PPR for Week 4 (MIN vs MIA): sit in a 12-team league. Median 11.0 points, floor 4.3 (p10), ceiling 20.1 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB32 (median 11.0). Standard: QB32 (median 11.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB32 | Sit | 11.0 | 4.3 | 20.1 |
| Half-PPR | QB32 | Sit | 11.0 | 4.3 | 20.1 |
| Standard | QB32 | Sit | 11.0 | 4.3 | 20.1 |
Game environment: MIN market-implied team total 24.2 vs 14.2 for MIA (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (2 games): 0% target share, 8% carry share, 59% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Kirk Cousins (QB30), Cam Ward (QB31), Case Keenum (QB33), Stetson Bennett IV (QB34).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings