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Should I start Cam Ward in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · TEN vs BAL · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Cam Ward QB31 in half-PPR for Week 4 (TEN vs BAL): sit in a 12-team league. Median 11.8 points, floor 5.5 (p10), ceiling 19.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB31 (median 11.8). Standard: QB31 (median 11.8).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB31 | Sit | 11.8 | 5.5 | 19.6 |
| Half-PPR | QB31 | Sit | 11.8 | 5.5 | 19.6 |
| Standard | QB31 | Sit | 11.8 | 5.5 | 19.6 |
Game environment: TEN market-implied team total 15.5 vs 27.0 for BAL (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 16% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Aaron Rodgers (QB29), Kirk Cousins (QB30), Kyler Murray (QB32), Case Keenum (QB33).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings