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Should I start Michael Wilson in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · ARI vs NYG · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Michael Wilson WR19 in half-PPR for Week 4 (ARI vs NYG): start in a 12-team league. Median 9.0 points, floor 2.9 (p10), ceiling 17.4 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: WR16 (median 11.5). Standard: WR20 (median 6.5).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | WR16 | Start | 11.5 | 4.1 | 21.0 |
| Half-PPR | WR19 | Start | 9.0 | 2.9 | 17.4 |
| Standard | WR20 | Start | 6.5 | 1.6 | 14.1 |
Game environment: ARI market-implied team total 23.5 vs 21.0 for NYG (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 27% target share, 0% carry share, 91% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Michael Wilson vs similar WRs
- Michael Wilson or Josh Downs? Michael Wilson outscores Josh Downs in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Michael Wilson or Dontayvion Wicks? Michael Wilson outscores Dontayvion Wicks in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Michael Wilson or Jordan Addison? Michael Wilson outscores Jordan Addison in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Michael Wilson or Stefon Diggs? Michael Wilson outscores Stefon Diggs in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Michael Wilson or DK Metcalf? Michael Wilson outscores DK Metcalf in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Dontayvion Wicks (WR17), George Pickens (WR18), Jordan Addison (WR20), Stefon Diggs (WR21).
Compare Michael Wilson with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings