PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Alvin Kamara or Braelon Allen: who should I start in Week 4?
· Alvin Kamara: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Braelon Allen: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Alvin Kamara over Braelon Allen in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (60%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Alvin Kamara (p10 3.4). Need upside? Alvin Kamara (p85 17.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Alvin Kamara | 60% | RB18 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 19.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 40% | RB20 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 17.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Alvin Kamara | 57% | RB18 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 17.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 43% | RB20 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 16.8 | |
| Standard | Alvin Kamara | 53% | RB19 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 15.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 47% | RB20 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 16.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.