PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Alvin Kamara or J.K. Dobbins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Alvin Kamara: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: J.K. Dobbins edges Alvin Kamara, outscoring him in 50.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Alvin Kamara (52%). Standard: J.K. Dobbins (52%). Need a safe floor? J.K. Dobbins (p10 3.0). Need upside? J.K. Dobbins (p85 16.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Alvin Kamara | 52% | RB22 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 18.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 48% | RB26 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 17.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Alvin Kamara | 50% | RB24 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 16.8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 50% | RB25 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 16.9 | |
| Standard | Alvin Kamara | 48% | RB25 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 15.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 52% | RB22 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 16.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.