PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Alvin Kamara: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Quinshon Judkins: CLE vs PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Alvin Kamara edges Quinshon Judkins, outscoring him in 53.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Alvin Kamara (p10 3.4). Need upside? Alvin Kamara (p85 17.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Alvin Kamara | 55% | RB18 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 19.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 45% | RB19 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 18.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Alvin Kamara | 53% | RB18 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 17.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 47% | RB19 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 16.5 | |
| Standard | Alvin Kamara | 51% | RB19 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 15.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 49% | RB21 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 15.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.