PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jordan Addison: who should I start in Week 4?
· Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Jordan Addison: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown edges Jordan Addison, outscoring him in 53.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p10 4.7). Need upside? Jordan Addison (p85 26.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 56% | WR4 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 30.3 |
| Jordan Addison | 44% | WR8 | 14.4 | 4.4 | 29.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 54% | WR4 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 25.8 |
| Jordan Addison | 46% | WR6 | 12.1 | 3.3 | 26.1 | |
| Standard | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 51% | WR4 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 21.5 |
| Jordan Addison | 49% | WR5 | 9.8 | 2.0 | 22.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.