PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Zay Flowers: who should I start in Week 4?
· Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown edges Zay Flowers, outscoring him in 54.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p10 4.7). Need upside? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p85 25.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 56% | WR4 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 30.3 |
| Zay Flowers | 44% | WR7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 27.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 54% | WR4 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 25.8 |
| Zay Flowers | 46% | WR7 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 24.0 | |
| Standard | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 52% | WR4 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 21.5 |
| Zay Flowers | 48% | WR6 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 20.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.