PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Braelon Allen or David Montgomery: who should I start in Week 4?
· Braelon Allen: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · David Montgomery: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Braelon Allen edges David Montgomery, outscoring him in 50.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Braelon Allen (51%). Standard: David Montgomery (50%). Need a safe floor? Braelon Allen (p10 2.0). Need upside? David Montgomery (p85 15.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Braelon Allen | 51% | RB28 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 16.5 |
| David Montgomery | 49% | RB29 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 16.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Braelon Allen | 50% | RB28 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 15.4 |
| David Montgomery | 50% | RB29 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 15.6 | |
| Standard | Braelon Allen | 50% | RB27 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 14.4 |
| David Montgomery | 50% | RB29 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 14.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.