PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
David Montgomery or Jacory Croskey-Merritt: who should I start in Week 4?
· David Montgomery: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Jacory Croskey-Merritt: WAS vs IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: David Montgomery edges Jacory Croskey-Merritt, outscoring him in 50.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: David Montgomery (51%). Standard: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (51%). Need a safe floor? Jacory Croskey-Merritt (p10 1.9). Need upside? David Montgomery (p85 15.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | David Montgomery | 51% | RB29 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 16.5 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 49% | RB32 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 15.6 | |
| Half-PPR | David Montgomery | 50% | RB29 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 15.6 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 50% | RB31 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 14.9 | |
| Standard | David Montgomery | 49% | RB31 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 14.6 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 51% | RB28 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 14.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.