PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Garrett Wilson or Puka Nacua: who should I start in Week 4?
· Garrett Wilson: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Puka Nacua: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Garrett Wilson edges Puka Nacua, outscoring him in 53.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Garrett Wilson (56%). Standard: Puka Nacua (50%). Need a safe floor? Garrett Wilson (p10 5.7). Need upside? Puka Nacua (p85 23.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Garrett Wilson | 56% | WR5 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 27.5 |
| Puka Nacua | 44% | WR6 | 14.8 | 5.7 | 27.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Garrett Wilson | 53% | WR5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 22.1 |
| Puka Nacua | 47% | WR8 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 23.0 | |
| Standard | Garrett Wilson | 50% | WR10 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 16.9 |
| Puka Nacua | 50% | WR7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 19.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.