PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jahmyr Gibbs or Aaron Jones Sr.: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jahmyr Gibbs: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Start Jahmyr Gibbs over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 61% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (63%) and standard (59%). Need a safe floor? Jahmyr Gibbs (p10 10.7). Need upside? Jahmyr Gibbs (p85 36.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 63% | RB1 | 24.7 | 12.4 | 39.4 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 37% | RB3 | 19.5 | 8.2 | 33.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 61% | RB1 | 22.2 | 10.7 | 36.6 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 39% | RB3 | 18.0 | 7.2 | 31.7 | |
| Standard | Jahmyr Gibbs | 59% | RB1 | 19.8 | 8.9 | 33.8 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 41% | RB3 | 16.6 | 6.1 | 30.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.