PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Javonte Williams or D'Andre Swift: who should I start in Week 4?
· Javonte Williams: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · D'Andre Swift: CHI vs NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Javonte Williams edges D'Andre Swift, outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Javonte Williams (53%). Standard: D'Andre Swift (50%). Need a safe floor? D'Andre Swift (p10 4.6). Need upside? Javonte Williams (p85 20.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Javonte Williams | 53% | RB15 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 22.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 47% | RB17 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 21.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Javonte Williams | 52% | RB14 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 20.9 |
| D'Andre Swift | 49% | RB16 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 19.8 | |
| Standard | Javonte Williams | 50% | RB14 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 19.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 50% | RB15 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 18.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.