PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
J.K. Dobbins or Omarion Hampton: who should I start in Week 4?
· J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Omarion Hampton: LAC vs SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: J.K. Dobbins edges Omarion Hampton, outscoring him in 50.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Omarion Hampton (51%). Standard: J.K. Dobbins (52%). Need a safe floor? J.K. Dobbins (p10 2.4). Need upside? J.K. Dobbins (p85 15.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | J.K. Dobbins | 49% | RB31 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 15.6 |
| Omarion Hampton | 51% | RB29 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 15.6 | |
| Half-PPR | J.K. Dobbins | 50% | RB24 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 15.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | 50% | RB25 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 14.8 | |
| Standard | J.K. Dobbins | 52% | RB23 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 48% | RB24 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 14.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.