PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes: who should I start in Week 4?
· Josh Allen: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Patrick Mahomes: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
START JOSH ALLEN
Start Josh Allen over Patrick Mahomes in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 63% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (63%) and standard (63%). Need a safe floor? Josh Allen (p10 12.3). Need upside? Josh Allen (p85 32.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Josh Allen | 63% | QB1 | 21.9 | 12.3 | 32.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 37% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Josh Allen | 63% | QB1 | 21.9 | 12.3 | 32.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 37% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 | |
| Standard | Josh Allen | 63% | QB1 | 21.9 | 12.3 | 32.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 37% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.