PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Stefon Diggs or DK Metcalf: who should I start in Week 4?
· Stefon Diggs: WAS vs IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · DK Metcalf: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Stefon Diggs edges DK Metcalf, outscoring him in 51.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Stefon Diggs (p10 2.7). Need upside? Stefon Diggs (p85 17.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Stefon Diggs | 52% | WR19 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 20.9 |
| DK Metcalf | 49% | WR21 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 20.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Stefon Diggs | 51% | WR21 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 17.4 |
| DK Metcalf | 49% | WR22 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 17.0 | |
| Standard | Stefon Diggs | 51% | WR24 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 14.2 |
| DK Metcalf | 49% | WR22 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 13.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.