PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Tetairoa McMillan or CeeDee Lamb: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · CeeDee Lamb: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tetairoa McMillan edges CeeDee Lamb, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: CeeDee Lamb (50%). Standard: Tetairoa McMillan (51%). Need a safe floor? CeeDee Lamb (p10 4.5). Need upside? Tetairoa McMillan (p85 24.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 50% | WR7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 28.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 50% | WR5 | 15.5 | 5.9 | 28.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 50% | WR5 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 24.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 50% | WR6 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 23.7 | |
| Standard | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 20.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 49% | WR6 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 19.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.