PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jaxon Smith-Njigba edges Zay Flowers, outscoring him in 50.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (50%). Standard: Zay Flowers (50%). Need a safe floor? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p10 4.4). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 25.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zay Flowers | 50% | WR4 | 15.8 | 5.7 | 29.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 50% | WR3 | 15.8 | 5.9 | 29.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Zay Flowers | 50% | WR2 | 13.0 | 4.3 | 25.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 50% | WR3 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 25.3 | |
| Standard | Zay Flowers | 50% | WR2 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 21.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 50% | WR3 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.