PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Zay Flowers or Puka Nacua: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Puka Nacua: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Zay Flowers edges Puka Nacua, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Puka Nacua (51%). Standard: Zay Flowers (52%). Need a safe floor? Puka Nacua (p10 4.2). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 24.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zay Flowers | 49% | WR7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 27.7 |
| Puka Nacua | 51% | WR6 | 14.8 | 5.7 | 27.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Zay Flowers | 50% | WR7 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 24.0 |
| Puka Nacua | 50% | WR8 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 23.0 | |
| Standard | Zay Flowers | 52% | WR6 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 20.5 |
| Puka Nacua | 48% | WR7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 19.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.