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Should I start Brock Purdy in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · SF vs DEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Brock Purdy QB14 in half-PPR for Week 4 (SF vs DEN): a borderline start in a 12-team league. Median 16.5 points, floor 8.9 (p10), ceiling 26.1 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB14 (median 16.5). Standard: QB14 (median 16.5).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB14 | Borderline | 16.5 | 8.9 | 26.1 |
| Half-PPR | QB14 | Borderline | 16.5 | 8.9 | 26.1 |
| Standard | QB14 | Borderline | 16.5 | 8.9 | 26.1 |
Game environment: SF market-implied team total 25.5 vs 23.0 for DEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 11% carry share, 95% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Brock Purdy vs similar QBs
- Brock Purdy or Joe Burrow? Brock Purdy outscores Joe Burrow in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Brock Purdy or Dak Prescott? Brock Purdy outscores Dak Prescott in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Brock Purdy or C.J. Stroud? Brock Purdy outscores C.J. Stroud in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Brock Purdy or Bo Nix? Brock Purdy outscores Bo Nix in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Brock Purdy or Jacoby Brissett? Brock Purdy outscores Jacoby Brissett in 54% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Dak Prescott (QB12), C.J. Stroud (QB13), Bo Nix (QB15), Jacoby Brissett (QB16).
Compare Brock Purdy with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings