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Should I start Dak Prescott in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · DAL vs HOU · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Dak Prescott QB12 in half-PPR for Week 4 (DAL vs HOU): start in a 12-team league. Median 16.7 points, floor 9.1 (p10), ceiling 25.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB12 (median 16.7). Standard: QB12 (median 16.7).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB12 | Start | 16.7 | 9.1 | 25.3 |
| Half-PPR | QB12 | Start | 16.7 | 9.1 | 25.3 |
| Standard | QB12 | Start | 16.7 | 9.1 | 25.3 |
Game environment: DAL market-implied team total 22.8 vs 25.8 for HOU (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 14% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Dak Prescott vs similar QBs
- Dak Prescott or Marcus Mariota? Dak Prescott outscores Marcus Mariota in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dak Prescott or Deshaun Watson? Dak Prescott outscores Deshaun Watson in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dak Prescott or Joe Burrow? Dak Prescott outscores Joe Burrow in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dak Prescott or C.J. Stroud? Dak Prescott outscores C.J. Stroud in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy? Dak Prescott outscores Brock Purdy in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Dak Prescott or Bo Nix? Dak Prescott outscores Bo Nix in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Deshaun Watson (QB10), Joe Burrow (QB11), C.J. Stroud (QB13), Brock Purdy (QB14).
Compare Dak Prescott with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings