PropPlayers › QB › DEN
Should I start Bo Nix in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · DEN vs SF · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Bo Nix QB4 in half-PPR for Week 4 (DEN vs SF): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.3 points, floor 9.1 (p10), ceiling 26.8 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB4 (median 17.3). Standard: QB4 (median 17.3).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB4 | Start | 17.3 | 9.1 | 26.8 |
| Half-PPR | QB4 | Start | 17.3 | 9.1 | 26.8 |
| Standard | QB4 | Start | 17.3 | 9.1 | 26.8 |
Game environment: DEN market-implied team total 23.0 vs 25.5 for SF (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 13% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Bo Nix vs similar QBs
- Bo Nix or Josh Allen? Bo Nix outscores Josh Allen in 34% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Bo Nix or Lamar Jackson? Bo Nix outscores Lamar Jackson in 42% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Bo Nix or Tyler Shough? Bo Nix outscores Tyler Shough in 45% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Bo Nix or Trevor Lawrence? Bo Nix outscores Trevor Lawrence in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Bo Nix or C.J. Stroud? Bo Nix outscores C.J. Stroud in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Bo Nix or Patrick Mahomes? Bo Nix outscores Patrick Mahomes in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Lamar Jackson (QB2), Tyler Shough (QB3), Trevor Lawrence (QB5), C.J. Stroud (QB6).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings