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Charlie Woerner Week 4 projection, props and start/sit
Week 4, 2026 · ATL vs NO · game projections · kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET ·
PropSims says sit Charlie Woerner in Week 4 unless Kyle Pitts is out: as a limited-role TE his median is 0.0 half-PPR points, with a significant role in under 1% of our 10,000 simulations.
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | TE89 | Sit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Half-PPR | TE86 | Sit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Standard | TE86 | Sit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Charlie Woerner props vs our simulations
| Prop | Book | Line | Over / under | Our median | Our P(over) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | FanDuel | 0.5 | +2200 / | 0.0 | 3% |
Lines from display-licensed sources (The Odds API), captured before kickoff. P(over) is our fair probability where a FanDuel price exists, otherwise the raw simulation share. No stat has a proven betting edge yet. Full props board · Track record
Game environment: ATL market-implied team total 23.2 vs 24.8 for NO (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 1% target share, 0% carry share, 57% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (TE, half-PPR): Luke Schoonmaker (TE84), Hunter Long (TE85), Oscar Delp (TE87), Quintin Morris (TE88).
Compare Charlie Woerner with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · Week 4 TE rankings · Atlanta Falcons projections