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Should I start Jake Ferguson in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · DAL vs HOU · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Jake Ferguson TE17 in half-PPR for Week 4 (DAL vs HOU): sit in a 12-team league. Median 4.6 points, floor 1.0 (p10), ceiling 11.5 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: TE17 (median 6.5). Standard: TE18 (median 2.8).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | TE17 | Sit | 6.5 | 1.4 | 14.1 |
| Half-PPR | TE17 | Sit | 4.6 | 1.0 | 11.5 |
| Standard | TE18 | Sit | 2.8 | 0.4 | 9.1 |
Game environment: DAL market-implied team total 22.8 vs 25.8 for HOU (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 11% target share, 0% carry share, 68% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (TE, half-PPR): Juwan Johnson (TE15), Mark Andrews (TE16), Brenton Strange (TE18), Michael Mayer (TE19).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings