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Should I start Marcus Mariota in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · WAS vs IND · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET ·
PropSims ranks Marcus Mariota QB9 in half-PPR for Week 4 (WAS vs IND): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.0 points, floor 9.1 (p10), ceiling 25.9 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB9 (median 17.0). Standard: QB9 (median 17.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB9 | Start | 17.0 | 9.1 | 25.9 |
| Half-PPR | QB9 | Start | 17.0 | 9.1 | 25.9 |
| Standard | QB9 | Start | 17.0 | 9.1 | 25.9 |
Game environment: WAS market-implied team total 21.0 vs 25.5 for IND (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (2 games): 0% target share, 7% carry share, 73% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Marcus Mariota vs similar QBs
- Marcus Mariota or Drake Maye? Marcus Mariota outscores Drake Maye in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Marcus Mariota or Jared Goff? Marcus Mariota outscores Jared Goff in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Marcus Mariota or Tyson Bagent? Marcus Mariota outscores Tyson Bagent in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Marcus Mariota or Deshaun Watson? Marcus Mariota outscores Deshaun Watson in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Marcus Mariota or Joe Burrow? Marcus Mariota outscores Joe Burrow in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Marcus Mariota or Dak Prescott? Marcus Mariota outscores Dak Prescott in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Jared Goff (QB7), Tyson Bagent (QB8), Deshaun Watson (QB10), Joe Burrow (QB11).
Compare Marcus Mariota with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings