PropPlayers › QB › CHI
Should I start Tyson Bagent in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · CHI vs NYJ · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Tyson Bagent QB8 in half-PPR for Week 4 (CHI vs NYJ): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.0 points, floor 9.2 (p10), ceiling 26.0 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB8 (median 17.0). Standard: QB8 (median 17.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB8 | Start | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.0 |
| Half-PPR | QB8 | Start | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.0 |
| Standard | QB8 | Start | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.0 |
Game environment: CHI market-implied team total 23.2 vs 19.8 for NYJ (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (1 games): 0% target share, 0% carry share, 14% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Tyson Bagent vs similar QBs
- Tyson Bagent or Bryce Young? Tyson Bagent outscores Bryce Young in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyson Bagent or Drake Maye? Tyson Bagent outscores Drake Maye in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyson Bagent or Jared Goff? Tyson Bagent outscores Jared Goff in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyson Bagent or Marcus Mariota? Tyson Bagent outscores Marcus Mariota in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyson Bagent or Deshaun Watson? Tyson Bagent outscores Deshaun Watson in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Tyson Bagent or Joe Burrow? Tyson Bagent outscores Joe Burrow in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Drake Maye (QB6), Jared Goff (QB7), Marcus Mariota (QB9), Deshaun Watson (QB10).
Compare Tyson Bagent with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings