What is T.J. Hockenson's floor and ceiling in Week 4?

Half-PPR: floor 1.6, median 5.9, ceiling 13.3. PPR: 2.4 / 8.1 / 16.4. Standard: 0.8 / 3.7 / 10.3. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations.

Players › TE › MIN

Should I start T.J. Hockenson in Week 4?

Week 4, 2026 · MIN vs MIA · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 4:48 AM ET

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PropSims ranks T.J. Hockenson TE12 in half-PPR for Week 4 (MIN vs MIA): start in a 12-team league. Median 5.9 points, floor 1.6 (p10), ceiling 13.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: TE11 (median 8.1). Standard: TE13 (median 3.7).

Scoring	Rank	Call	Median	Floor p10	Ceiling p85
PPR	TE11	Start	8.1	2.4	16.4
Half-PPR	TE12	Start	5.9	1.6	13.3
Standard	TE13	Borderline	3.7	0.8	10.3

Game environment: MIN market-implied team total 24.2 vs 14.2 for MIA (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 20% target share, 0% carry share, 73% snap rate (nflverse).

Close calls: T.J. Hockenson vs similar TEs

T.J. Hockenson or Zach Ertz? T.J. Hockenson outscores Zach Ertz in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle? T.J. Hockenson outscores George Kittle in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
T.J. Hockenson or Harold Fannin Jr.? T.J. Hockenson outscores Harold Fannin Jr. in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
T.J. Hockenson or Hunter Henry? T.J. Hockenson outscores Hunter Henry in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
T.J. Hockenson or Dalton Schultz? T.J. Hockenson outscores Dalton Schultz in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
T.J. Hockenson or Cade Otton? T.J. Hockenson outscores Cade Otton in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).

Ranked nearby (TE, half-PPR): George Kittle (TE10), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE11), Hunter Henry (TE13), Dalton Schultz (TE14).

Compare T.J. Hockenson with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →

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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings