PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Zach Ertz or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zach Ertz: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Zach Ertz edges T.J. Hockenson, outscoring him in 51.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? T.J. Hockenson (p10 1.6). Need upside? Zach Ertz (p85 15.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zach Ertz | 50% | TE10 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 18.0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 50% | TE11 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 16.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Zach Ertz | 51% | TE9 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 15.6 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 49% | TE12 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 13.3 | |
| Standard | Zach Ertz | 53% | TE9 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 13.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 47% | TE13 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.