PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Chris Olave: who should I start in Week 4?
· Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown edges Chris Olave, outscoring him in 51.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p10 4.1). Need upside? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p85 23.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 52% | WR8 | 15.1 | 5.7 | 27.3 |
| Chris Olave | 48% | WR10 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 52% | WR7 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 23.4 |
| Chris Olave | 48% | WR10 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 22.5 | |
| Standard | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 52% | WR7 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 19.3 |
| Chris Olave | 48% | WR10 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 18.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.