PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chase Brown or D'Andre Swift: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · D'Andre Swift: CHI vs NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chase Brown edges D'Andre Swift, outscoring him in 51.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Chase Brown (54%). Standard: D'Andre Swift (50%). Need a safe floor? D'Andre Swift (p10 4.6). Need upside? Chase Brown (p85 21.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chase Brown | 54% | RB13 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 23.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 46% | RB17 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 21.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Chase Brown | 52% | RB13 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 21.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | 48% | RB16 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 19.8 | |
| Standard | Chase Brown | 50% | RB13 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
| D'Andre Swift | 50% | RB15 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 18.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.