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Should I start Chase Brown in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · CIN vs JAC · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Chase Brown RB13 in half-PPR for Week 4 (CIN vs JAC): start in a 12-team league. Median 11.5 points, floor 4.5 (p10), ceiling 21.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB13 (median 13.1). Standard: RB13 (median 10.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB13 | Start | 13.1 | 5.4 | 23.5 |
| Half-PPR | RB13 | Start | 11.5 | 4.5 | 21.6 |
| Standard | RB13 | Start | 10.0 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
Game environment: CIN market-implied team total 27.2 vs 24.8 for JAC (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 13% target share, 75% carry share, 71% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Chase Brown vs similar RBs
- Chase Brown or Kyren Williams? Chase Brown outscores Kyren Williams in 44% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Chase Brown or Ashton Jeanty? Chase Brown outscores Ashton Jeanty in 46% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Chase Brown or Chuba Hubbard? Chase Brown outscores Chuba Hubbard in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Chase Brown or Javonte Williams? Chase Brown outscores Javonte Williams in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Chase Brown or Bucky Irving? Chase Brown outscores Bucky Irving in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Chase Brown or D'Andre Swift? Chase Brown outscores D'Andre Swift in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Ashton Jeanty (RB11), Chuba Hubbard (RB12), Javonte Williams (RB14), Bucky Irving (RB15).
Compare Chase Brown with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings