PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Kyren Williams or Chase Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Kyren Williams over Chase Brown in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (58%). Need a safe floor? Kyren Williams (p10 5.3). Need upside? Kyren Williams (p85 24.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kyren Williams | 55% | RB10 | 14.6 | 5.9 | 25.9 |
| Chase Brown | 45% | RB13 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 23.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Kyren Williams | 56% | RB10 | 13.4 | 5.3 | 24.6 |
| Chase Brown | 44% | RB13 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 21.6 | |
| Standard | Kyren Williams | 58% | RB10 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 23.3 |
| Chase Brown | 42% | RB13 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.